Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
I shop at Sainsbury’s. Most people in Britain shop at Sainsbury’s.
I shop at Marks & Spencer. Most people in Britain shop at Marks & Spencer.
I have shares in GKN, formerly Guest Keen & Nettlefolds, one of the world’s leading engineering groups.
I have worked for various divisions of Reed Elsevier, the largest group of scientific, technical and medical publishers in the world and owners of the London Book Fair, the World Travel Market, MIPCOM and many other exhibitions.
These are not insignificant businesses. They employ a lot of people, have substantial turnovers and pay a great deal of tax. They have been trading profitably for nearly two hundred years.
Yet add the book value of all these companies together, and you will not reach the value placed on a few thousand lines of computer code called Uber, which is an app you put on your smartphone to summon a taxi in certain cities. It doesn’t work in Birmingham, Bristol, Bingley, Brighton, Bradford, Bournemouth, Barnstaple, Bridlington, Biddulph, Bridgnorth, Berwick or Blaenau Ffestiniog — yet today Uber is valued at forty-one BILLION dollars.
Frankly, that is insane. I hope the investors get a very, very quick return on their cash. Are they telling me that hailing cabs has a higher potential return than academic publishing, supermarkets, aerospace and the manufacture of drive trains (for the taxis that will come and pick you up) put together? They’re barking mad. (But very, very rich).
This is the South Sea Bubble all over again, or John Law selling the Mississippi. I doubt Uber will be around in 10 or 15 years. It’s being sued in almost every country in which it operates. It’s a convenient tool for helping you find a taxi. And other apps are available. It’s not like they’ve patented the corkscrew, for God’s sake.
Years ago I read a wonderful book titled “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” by Charles Mackay. It was published in 1841, and it described Tulipomania, which seized the Netherlands in the early seventeenth century. One tulip bulb in 1637 briefly became the most expensive object in the world. Another chapter is titled Popular Follies of Great Cities. This rings an awful lot of familiar bells.
Give me Sainsbury’s. Give me Reed Elsevier. Give me GKN. Give me Marks & Sparks. Companies that are worth something. Companies that have actually benefited the world in which we live.
I can hail my own cab, thank you very much.
December 10th, 2014 at 14:59
Am I the only one who thinks Gwyn Headley looks like David Mellor?
December 10th, 2014 at 15:03
I’ve never been so insulted in all my life. And I think Mr Mellor is compelled to use Uber now.